The Role of E-mobility and Shared Transportation Solutions in Addressing Climate Emergency

Kaushik Burman, Supply chain development & Growth, Gogoro

Kaushik Burman, Supply chain development & Growth, Gogoro

Climate risk and resilience have been the focus of scientific assessments for the past two decades–IPCC SR Ocean and Cryosphere report has done extensive modelling on the historical changes in the ocean and cryosphere since 1950, and projected future changes under low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) are scenarios that include time series of emissions and concentrations of the full suite of GHGs and Aerosols, including chemically active gases, as well as land use/land cover.

RCP2.6 represents a low greenhouse gas emission, high mitigation future that limit global warming to below 2°C by 2100. By contrast, RCP8.5 is a scenario in the absence of policies to combat climate change, leads to an increase of up to 5.2°C -- as of 2017, we are already at 1.1°C. At this unprecedented rate of melting of the glaciers, including melting of the deep permafrost at the Arctic, sea levels continue to rise, and forecasts lead to a 1-2 meters increase in the sea levels. It bodes a scary future, as cities, ranging from smaller sizes (population 1-2 million) to megacities (population > 10 million) will be at the biggest risk of rising sea levels–with over 60 cities at risk, globally, at current levels. Infrastructure investments to the tune of trillions of dollars into roads, homes and commercial establishments, warehouses would be at risk of inundation, displacing millions of people from their livelihood. Additionally, in recent years, researchers have pulled samples of smallpox, Spanish flu, bubonic plague, and even anthrax from thawing permafrost. Meltwater from glaciers and ice caps could ferry harmful pathogens along streams, rivers, and other important waterways, potentially exposing humans to new microbes.

Globally, transportation contributes to as high as 30 percent of total GHG emissions, so urgency to decarbonize this sector is high!

Technology, cleaner fuels combined with social empathy can decarbonize urban transportation at a faster pace: A paradigm shift has already taken place in the previous decade, with the advent of ride-hailing service providers. Leveraging technology in creating scalable platforms to provide on-demand mobility has created new value pools and a sustained value delivery process to consumers, driver-partners. While ride-hailing has encouraged people to substitute individual vehicle ownership with vehicle sharing, aggregate vehicle miles travelled (VMT) has increased manifold times. That implies that more cars on the road, leading to higher congestion, and higher GHG emissions. Hence ride-hailing in isolation will not help in reducing the carbon footprint. Ride-hailing entities need to push harder on “pooling”, where for every trip, the routing algorithms optimize the mobility of both goods and people. Asset “pooling” models enable fewer vehicles on road, lower per capita GHG emissions, and lower energy intensity. Accelerated adoption of pooling requires a mindset shift aided by higher awareness and adherence to safety standards by driver-partners.

Additionally, in recent years, researchers have pulled samples of smallpox, Spanish flu, bubonic plague, and even anthrax from thawing permafrost

The impact of social distancing rules on shared mobility is yet to be ascertained, as an aftermath of the pandemic, but in the long term, given the combined financial and environmental benefits stacking from asset sharing, reversion to mean is a high likelihood event, with safety guidelines in good order.

On cleaner fuels and powertrains, E-mobility is a front runner with lower tailpipe emissions–while there is no silver bullet to solve decarbonization in its entirety, e-mobility has lower tailpipe emissions and from a lifecycle emissions standpoint can potentially have 30%-40% lower carbon footprint compared to mainstream fossil fuels (includes the energy intense upstream rare earth mining and battery assembly process). E-mobility aided by connected devices (IoT), can improve asset utilisation and optimize battery pack performance.

Post pandemic world, would have forced the society to revisit the rules laid thus far – Is driving to work daily really efficient? In a limited supply environment during the lockdowns, people have adapted to “doing more with less” – hence supply chains models will adapt to this new reality. Here, I see an ever-increasing adoption of B2B2C transportation models evolving, which may push all to think of energy optimization at every step of the consumption cycle. Hence a cab ride from point A to B, might necessitate delivery of essential items to consumers along the way.

And if there are fewer automobiles on road, there might be lower demand of underutilised parking space. This additional space could be used to develop affordable housing for all or increased green cover to decarbonize the environment further – these are some of the aspects of social empathy for consideration to enhance harmony and reduce social inequity in the community.

Optimization of the real estate and future of electric mobility are intertwined. The lack of real estate leads to fewer charging station infrastructure, which in turn leads to reduced demand of EV. Specific to two and three-wheelers, battery swapping works particularly well in dense urban areas, where there is limited real estate to create physical infrastructure for AC/DC chargers. Underutilized real estate in shopping malls, gas stations, retail hypermarkets and parking areas can be used to create battery swapping infrastructure.

There are prevailing concerns around high reserve ratios of batteries in a swapping system, but by an optimal network design process, dovetailed with network operational excellence, battery reserve ratios can be reduced. Additionally, the experience from Taiwan points to increased user acceptance pf swapping as a solution, where range anxiety issues are allayed by robust battery performance & swapping network. However, it is imperative to develop policies such as tax rebates, incentives for localized manufacturing thereby lowering costs, setting into motion a win-win paradigm for investors and customers.

Design thinking combined with TOD models are required to develop smart cities and insulate citizens with the brutal impact of climate change. Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) model’s primary goal is to diversify our transportation options, revitalize the city landscape by providing more free space to people, optimize their journeys better by providing access to multi-modal transportation choices–with public transit at the heart of urban design. If over 60 percent of the trips made in major metros are less than three km (two miles) and almost 99% of these trips are by cars, SUVs. Why would we do that?

In applying TOD models, smart city planning could embed first and last mile transportation as diverse vehicle form factors in (bicycles, two, three and four-wheelers) on sharing platforms and with the help of technology enablers (APIs libraries), bespoke MaaS platforms could connect seamlessly with the MRT and Public transit corridors. By having docked parking stations adjacent to MRT stations, could provide the last mile commuting far easier and near-zero carbon footprint at a fraction of the costs of individual car ownership.

The climate emergency challenge is a complex problem, with interdependency on multiple SDG goals–response to solve this challenge requires an integrated and design thinking approach, aided by robust policy design by effective dialogue with city planners, consumers and businesses. Disruptive innovation challenging the incumbent mobility models can yield sustained environmental benefits and a thriving planetary ecosystem.